Dan Lomas’ recent RUSI essay, “The Death of Secret Intelligence? Think Again,” is a good and fair assessment of the value of secret intelligence and open source intelligence. Lomas clearly and forcefully explains the real benefits of secret intelligence for a subset of policymakers and decision makers. You should read it.
To truly take advantage of secret intelligence, however, policymakers and decision makers must want to read and use it. Secret intelligence-resistant (SI-resistant) bureaucratic or political cultures that have seemingly managed—and still do—without substantive amounts of secret intelligence to guide policy analysis or decision making may be dubious of the value of secret intelligence. Members of these cultures may see open source intelligence as either sufficient or ‘good enough’ for their purposes.1
Those who attempt to reform SI-resistant cultures must grapple with what may be conflicting long-term perceptions of the value (or lack thereof) of this intelligence. Members of this resistant culture can sometimes become even more avoidant of state secrets by merit of fearing the consequences of knowing or having access to them: when knowing secret intelligence is perceived as being linked to an inability to do much with it, for fear of burning sources and methods and then suffering untold professional or political harms, there are good political and bureaucratic reasons to do without the secret stuff. In these kinds of cultures, there is a risk (real or imagined) that secret intelligence can be toxic to one’s career or future ambitions.
It is in this kind of toxic environment that knowing state secrets may be seen as a problem calling for solutions. Decision makers might have to undertake parallel construction to develop secret intelligence-adjacent fact patterns to justify the conclusions at which they arrived, when those conclusions were in fact guided by secret intelligence. And integrating useful state secrets into policy advice could prevent the circulation of that advice within the government, with the effect of barring uncleared colleagues and managers from the secret intelligence-enhanced (and potentially career enhancing) insights. Not circulating one’s work could mean that a highly capable policy analyst cannot catch the attention of their uncleared managers or directors who may be helpful for lifting the analyst and their career to the next bureaucratic height. Members of the SI-resistant class might wonder whether secrets are really all that they’re cracked up to be.2
This gulf of doubt, the questions of utility, and the practical ‘do we really need to change questions’ are challenging issues to overcome in SI-resistant cultures. Perhaps one way forward, though one which somewhat comically requires overcoming certain preferences for government secrecy around access to documents, is to open the vaults (or Archives) of historical secret information.
In cultures which value secret information we can read and watch insider and expert (and…not so expert) explanations, movies, and valourizations of the merit of secret intelligence in transforming a country’s position in the world. This kind of storytelling may be a key ingredient in developing a political and bureaucratic culture that recognizes the value of incorporating secret intelligence more regularly into routine government affairs. Just pointing at bureaucratic and political cultures that are more open to using secret intelligence, however, and saying ‘mimic them!’ is unlikely to drive much change in a culture that has long been secret intelligence-resistant.
Thus, while the RUSI article does an excellent job trumpeting the value of secret and open source intelligence, the advice and findings really may principally apply to countries with high numbers of security cleared decision makers and where the public—and thus elected politicians—acknowledge the value of secret intelligence amongst the oceans of open source materials that exists around them. And even when there is an appetite for secret intelligence it must be practical to access it.
In some secret intelligence-resistant cultures, there have long been processes where secret intelligence-laden analyst reports have been deposited on non-experts’ desks. Those same non-expects know that if they read the materials they may face possible jeopardy. On the one hand, they largely cannot disclose what they learn but, on the other, if they do not read the materials and that becomes public knowledge then they may be seen as poor stewards of the realm. The responsible ones will dutifully read their briefing books and ensure they never accidentally reveal their secret knowledge to anyone who isn’t in the secret intelligence tribe. Those less responsible might, instead, expect that they wouldn’t be able to use the secret intelligence anyways and ultimately have more hours in their weeks to guide the realm and her interests when they exclusively rely on non-classified information.
As should be obvious, the aforementioned method of circulating secret intelligence does not present a particularly efficacious way of incorporating secret intelligence into government activities. Another way must be found that ideally is developed in at least marginally public settings and in tandem with genuine efforts to open up historical secret archives to historians, academics, and public policy makers to come to their own conclusions about what the value of secret intelligence has actually been. Only once, and if, the SI-resistant culture comes to realize it truly has been missing something are broader cultural changes likely to ensue where that culture’s secret-intelligence resistance at least shifts to secret intelligence-ambivalence. Such would be a small step along a long road towards truly accepting and regularly integrating secret intelligence into the realm’s public affairs.
- They may even, largely, be correct. ↩︎
- Of course, holding a contrary view are members of invite-only events where a great gnashing of teeth can arise over the ‘secrecy and OSINT problem.’ In these, at least some of the secrecy-indoctrinated participants may even discuss the very question of whether OSINT is truly useful while, ultimately, the room broadly reaches a muttering agreement that the secret intelligence many have spent their careers collecting and enriching really adds a lot of value for decision makers. Even if the same decision makers rarely make use of the information due to their secret intelligence-resistant cultures. Indeed, the gnashing can be enough that a concerned participant might worry that dentists should be on hand to issue mouthguards to some attending participants. ↩︎




